A spatial analysis of ball recovery locations, ball recovery methods and eventual possession outcomes in elite women’s football using a Bayesian network approach

Jamil, Mikael, McElduff, Christopher, Adshead, Lucas, Welsh, Joseph, Ez-zizi, Adnane and Beato, Marco (2025) A spatial analysis of ball recovery locations, ball recovery methods and eventual possession outcomes in elite women’s football using a Bayesian network approach. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. ISSN 1474-8185

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Abstract

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact ball recovery tactics had on attacking performance in women’s football. As such, in this study (n = 19,040), occurrences of open-play possession regain events in professional women’s football across professional European leagues were analysed. A Bayesian Network model was applied to the data and the results revealed some unique insights. Organised pressing was revealed to be effective throughout the pitch but its pay-off mainly depends on where the ball is won. Successful pressing occurrences that resulted in the regaining of possession in the attacking right-hand side of the playing surface produced the highest likelihood of creating goal-scoring chances. Furthermore, the results of this study revealed that interceptions are the dominant recovery method, especially in central zones and tackling becomes more influential in wide areas of the pitch. In addition, this study revealed that team quality and recovery method both influenced outcomes, but only indirectly via their effect on regain location, while venue has no detectable impact on possession outcomes. Whilst this study did discover some similar trends in ball recovery patterns to those discovered previously in men’s football, some unique findings specific to women’s football were also discovered.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: transitions, soccer, turnover, regain, Bayesian Networks
Subjects: Q Science > Q Science (General)
Divisions: The School of Health, Sciences and Society
Depositing User: Mikael Jamil
Date Deposited: 22 Sep 2025 09:26
Last Modified: 22 Sep 2025 09:26
URI: https://oars.uos.ac.uk/id/eprint/5135

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